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Name: Rodrigo Pineda-Icaza
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Waiting for more updates in the Nicaraguan election

The issues in the electoral board of Managua seems to be present still, I understand they started counting the votes from scratch ( Managua only) as there were concerns of Data loss due to the electrical problems of last night.

With still 39% of the votes for this preliminary count, the left and the MSM are calling Ortega the winner like a fact, I just watched CNN report declaring Ortega the winner ( it turned my stomach upsidedown), of course the Nut of Chavez in Venezuela is calling him a winner as well, he seems to be of the opinion that his investment is gonna pay off, the worst of all was the Left in El savaldor, declaring the win of Ortgea to be the start of the resurgent of the Left in Central America and calling for Marxist-Leninist policies to be taken by the new goverment of Ortega.

Deja Vue, all those statement gave me chill in just thinking in the possibilities of the totalitarian policies of the Sandinista Goverment of the 80's.  I just spoke with a contact on the ALN political party and they are still mantained that they were able to hold the Sandinistas under 35%, forcing a second round with only the two top candidates, I hope he's right, and most importantly, I hope the Liberal and Conservative forces in Nicaragua learn their lessons and never again commit the tactical error of facing the Communist divided, given them the possibility of winning the presidency.


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Serious Irregularities in vote counting in Nicaragua

The counting of votes in Managua was halted, this afternoon due to multiple irregularities found during the counting process by representatives of at least three political parties. An electrical blackout in the area where the computers are in the counting center as well as the presence of installed programs that were not part of the standard computer installation packages, prompted the representatives of several political parties to request the suspension, in the department of Managua. It is understood that the counting will restart tomorrow morning.

At the same time Daniel Ortega stopped calling victory for his political association and is looking more reconciliatory and asking all Nicaraguans for patience and letting the election process to work.

The official report of the results came out around 7:00 PM, Nicaraguan time, with a 61.80% of total votes,  with the following results:


FSLN        38.59%
ALN          30.94%
PLC           22.93%
MRS           7.25%
AC             0.29%


I personally can see a trend that could put Ortega under the 35% required to win the presidency, he is only 3.59% from missing the cutoff mark of 35%.  They are also only 2.76% to miss the 5% margin that he needs to maintain from the second runner-up. With 39% of the votes still not counted I think the race is becoming closer to a second round.



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Ortega maintains the lead

With 40% of the polls stations counted, the Sandinista presidential Candidate maintains his lead in the Nicaraguan election with a 40% of the votes. The liberal coalition of the ALN is still at a striking distance of 32%. The difference is just 7.38% and it just need to get within the 5% to force a second vote.

So 2.38% is the difference right now between winning the presidency for Ortega or having to go into a runoff election with an united Liberal Alliance.

The ALN is still maintaining the election is close based on their own copies of the poll station voters lists and are explaining the Sandinista Lead on regional differences.
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Confusion Continues in Nicaragua

Is almost noon in Nicaragua on Monday 6th and still counting votes. There has not been another official announcement of the election results but there are so many rumors in the air and every political party of course is giving intenal numbers that are fueling the confusion. The Sandinistas still is calling the election.


The Independent organization "Etica y Transparencia" declared Ortega the winner with 38% enough to make him the president of Nicaragua(check link if you speak spanish). (http://www.elnuevodiario.com.ni/2006/11/06/politica/33222


Eduardo Montealegre, the candidate from the ALN-PC, in an interview to TV Channel 2, says that some of the quick counting methods are giving different results and that he is prepare to count every last vote. Their own internal and parallel counting, based on the poll station official acts,  reveal a closer election result and that the fight is continuing into a runoff.



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Chaos In Nicaragua

The Elections of Sunday , November 05 in Nicaragua has been the most challenging Elections since the fall of the Totalitarian Sandinista Goverment in 1990.  For the First time the democratic forces in Nicaragua came into the election split in 2 major forces, the PLC and The ALN-PC. In the previous 3 free elections in Nicaragua, the democratic people of Nicaragua presented a single presidential candidate to win 3 times in a row versus the Totalitarian forces of the Sandinistas.
 
The polls are closed and the more contentious part of the election started, counting the votes. The first and second voting result announcements puts the Sandinistas winning the elections with approximated 40% of the votes. The last provisional result  given by the president of the Nicaraguan Electoral Council, Roberto Rivas, at 3.20 AM, this morning with a 14.65% of the popular vote( or it could be the poll stations) is as follows.


FSLN     40.04%
ALN-PC  33.29%
PLC       19.51%

The Sandistas and Daniel Ortega are calling the election on its favor and thousands of its supporters are on the streets celebrating and intimidating the population.

Representatives of other Political parties are calling that behavior irresponsible and are calling for a stop to the street celebrations. Also are criticizing the Electoral Council of slow-counting, misrepresentation of the result as the vote counting has not being even , as some of the heavy Sandista-leaning areas as Leon has been accounted for 25% but democratic-leaning areas as Matagalpa only 6%.


The ANL-PC presidential candidate, Eduardo Montealegre,  in a speech from his campaign headquaters is saying that their own intenal counting is giving his party enough votes to force a runoff. And other parties are reporting that all parallel countings are indicating a close race, forcing a second round between Daniel Ortega and Eduardo Montealegre.

There has been some irregularities reported in the voting process as well. Some voting stations closed earlier than the legal time, Thousands of people were not issue the voting credentials required to vote. The elections are being heavily observed by international agencies like the European Union, the Organization of American Estates, the Carter Centre etc...  due to the fact that even after 3 free election there are serious concern about the Electoral Council independence as is controlled by the Sandinistas that has been essential in controlling electoral laws, such as the inability of Nicaraguan abroad to vote (there estimated half a millions votes abroad with a 90% of them being democratic) or the 35% popular vote winning rule which could make Ortega president today.

I believe there are no Sleeping Nicraguan right now, everyone is on their toes , following the initial results of the elections. 

Roddy
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